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Gold Price Outlook 2026: UBS, Goldman, and J.P. Morgan Signal More Upside Ahead

Gold’s blistering 2025 rally has finally cooled, but major banks say the pullback isn’t the start of a downturn – it’s a pause. After hitting all-time highs near $4,400/oz, gold slid below $4,000 before stabilising in the $3,900–$4,200 range. Still, Wall Street’s top forecasters remain convinced the metal is gearing up for another leg higher […]

Gold’s blistering 2025 rally has finally cooled, but major banks say the pullback isn’t the start of a downturn – it’s a pause. After hitting all-time highs near $4,400/oz, gold slid below $4,000 before stabilising in the $3,900–$4,200 range. Still, Wall Street’s top forecasters remain convinced the metal is gearing up for another leg higher in 2026.

UBS: Gold to Reach $4,500 by Mid-2026

UBS has raised its mid-year 2026 forecast to $4,500/oz, citing a durable mix of bullish drivers:

Further Federal Reserve rate cuts and lower real yields
Rising geopolitical tensions and fiscal concerns
Surging central-bank and investor demand
Expected 750 tons of ETF inflows in 2026
Continued strong sovereign reserve buying (900 tons projected)

UBS’s upside scenario climbs to $4,900/oz, especially if political or financial stresses intensify.

Goldman Sachs: Central Banks Still the Dominant Force

Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its $4,900 end-2026 call, pointing to one primary catalyst: central-bank accumulation. Its models show a jump from 21 tonnes in August to 64 tonnes in September, with buying likely accelerating through late 2025.

Goldman expects an average of 80 tonnes per month purchased through 2026, alongside renewed Western ETF inflows and rising retail interest.

J.P. Morgan’s Key Question Becomes the Floor for 2026

J.P.Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon was recently quoted as saying that while he is not a typical gold buyer, the precious metal could “easily go to $5,000 or $10,000 in environments like this”. He described the current market conditions as one of the few times in his life where it is “semi-rational” to have some gold in a portfolio.

Macro Backdrop Still Favours Gold

Unemployment has climbed from 3.4% to 4.3%, layoffs have surged past 1.1 million, and inflation has ticked up to 3%. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index has slipped from 109 to ~99.5 and the Fed has resumed rate cuts. This combination (slower growth, rising inflation pressure, and falling yields) is historically supportive of gold.

The short-term correction hasn’t changed the long-term picture. With UBS targeting $4,500, Goldman calling for $4,900, and J.P. Morgan questioning whether $4,000 will become the new floor, gold appears poised for another strong year in 2026.

Central banks are buying aggressively, investors are buying dips, and the macro backdrop continues to favor safety – and scarcity.

If the big banks are right, the real debate in 2026 won’t be whether gold can break $4,000. It will be how far above it the next rally goes.