Gold has been one of the standout performers of 2025. With more than 50 new all-time highs and a return exceeding 60%, the metal has reaffirmed its reputation as a powerful safe-haven asset. A unique blend of geopolitical tension, economic uncertainty, a weaker US dollar, and strong price momentum has fuelled demand from both investors and central banks. In a year marked by volatility, gold’s appeal as a stabilizing force has rarely been clearer.
Where Do We Go From Here?
As we turn toward 2026, the outlook is anything but straightforward. The current gold price largely reflects today’s macroeconomic consensus, suggesting that, if conditions hold, prices may remain in a relatively stable range. But if 2025 has taught investors anything, it’s that the unexpected can happen quickly.
Here are the key paths forward:
1. Slower Growth + Lower Rates = Moderate Gains
If the global economy loses momentum and central banks continue to reduce interest rates, gold could continue its upward trend, albeit at a more measured pace. Lower yields diminish the opportunity cost of holding gold, giving the metal more room to rise.
2. A Severe Downturn Could Supercharge Gold
In a scenario where global risks escalate (economic stress, geopolitical shocks, or financial instability) gold could once again become a top performer. Historically, the metal has thrived during broad market turmoil, and 2026 would likely be no exception.
3. Stronger Growth Under the Trump Administration Could Pressure Gold
A different path could unfold if policies from the Trump administration succeed in boosting economic growth and reducing geopolitical tensions. That combination would likely drive higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar, both of which tend to place downward pressure on gold prices.
Other Forces to Watch
Beyond macro trends, several secondary factors will shape the gold market’s direction:
- Central bank buying: Strong official-sector demand has been a pillar of support in recent years. Whether this continues, or pauses, will matter.
- Recycling levels: Shifts in recycled gold supply could influence overall market balance and price stability.
The Constant: Gold’s Role in Portfolios
No matter how the macro environment evolves, gold’s strategic value remains unchanged. As a diversifier, inflation hedge, and source of stability, it continues to play a critical role in portfolios navigating persistent volatility.
Further reading: World Gold Council | Gold Outlook 2026: Push ahead or pull back
Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Buying physical gold as an investment involves risk, as the value of precious metal prices can be volatile. Historical financial performance does not necessarily give a guide of future financial performance. We recommend that you conduct your own independent research and seek professional tax, legal and financial advice before making any investment decisions.
