In a bold new forecast, HSBC has projected that gold prices could soar to $5,000 per ounce by the first half of 2026, driven by a combination of geopolitical, economic, and market forces that are turning investors increasingly toward the yellow metal.
A Perfect Storm for Gold
The price of spot gold has already seen a dramatic rise, breaching the US$4,300 mark on Thursday 16th October (its highest level ever) and heading for its strongest weekly performance since the 2008 financial crisis. This latest surge has caught the attention of major financial institutions, with HSBC joining the likes of Bank of America and Société Générale in forecasting gold’s continued ascent.
According to HSBC’s report released on Friday 17th October, the gold rally is being powered by five key factors:
- Geopolitical tensions
- Robust central bank buying
- ETF inflows
- Expectations of US interest rate cuts
- Tariff and trade uncertainties
Forecast Breakdown: 2025–2026
HSBC has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 to US$3,455 per ounce, up from its previous estimate of US$3,355. For 2026, the bank now expects gold to average US$4,600, significantly up from its earlier projection of US$3,950 – but it’s the peak forecast of US$5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026 that has captured headlines.
What makes this rally different, HSBC notes, is the nature of the buyers entering the market.
“Unlike previous rallies, we believe many of these new buyers are likely to stay in the gold space – even after the rally ends – not so much for appreciation necessarily as for gold’s diversification and ‘safe haven’ qualities,” the bank wrote.
In other words, gold is not just a momentum trade. It’s increasingly being viewed as a core portfolio asset, particularly in a world of rising public debt, uncertain economic policies, and increased geopolitical fragmentation.
Final Thoughts: Gold in a Shifting Global Landscape
HSBC’s forecast underscores a broader trend: in an era of geopolitical realignment, economic fragmentation, and debt-driven fiscal policies, gold is regaining its status as the ultimate store of value.
Whether or not gold hits US$5,000 per ounce in 2026, the current momentum – and the reasons behind it – suggest that gold is likely to remain a crucial asset in the portfolios of both institutional and individual investors for the foreseeable future.
Further reading:
Reuters | Gold to hit $5,000/oz in 2026, HSBC says
The Straits Times | HSBC predicts gold’s ‘bull wave’ to hit US$5,000 an ounce in 2026
Yahoo!Finance | Gold price rebounds as HSBC sees yellow metal hitting $5,000 in 2026
Kitco | ‘Bull wave’ will push gold to $5,000/oz by June 2026 – HSBC
Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Buying physical gold as an investment involves risk, as the value of precious metal prices can be volatile. Historical financial performance does not necessarily give a guide of future financial performance. We recommend that you conduct your own independent research and seek professional tax, legal and financial advice before making any investment decisions.
